I’ll admit the Tournament is a great concept and can yield some exciting finishes, but the college game produces such a low quality level of basketball. Therefore, I’m sticking with the NBA until the Sox and A’s come to the rescue next week.
Denver -5 at 
New Jersey o/u 225.5
Pick: Denver -5. Laying five on the road is never fun, but the Nuggets need this game bad to keep pace with the Warriors for the 8th seed in the West. New Jersey has something to play for too, but they just don’t have the bodies to matchup against the Nuggets. Denver plays zero D, but they can do something the Nets can’t - score 130 with ease. Denver is coming off two straight road losses and I have a feeling George Karl ripped them a new one during their day off. Say what you want about the dysfunctional nature of this team, but theyhave some true competitors in Camby and Iverson. Look for those two to set the tone. Also - Kenyon Martin should be up for this game as he’ll be playing against his old team.
Golden State -4.5 vs. 
Houston o/u 207
Pick: Over 207. I believe this is my first o/u play of the year. I usually try to stay away from playing the totals - mainly because it’s so random and usually comes down to either garbage points or free throws in the fourth quarter. However, this is a nice line for a Warriors game and is worth a shot. Golden State scored 100 or more in like 200 straight games and Houston is due for a 90-100 point game after two straight horrible shooting games against Boston and New Orleans. With Yao healthy, the Rockets usually concentrate on exposing the Warriors’ lack of size inside, but with him out, I think the Rockets will be more willing to run with the Warriors. Much like the Nuggets, Golden State basically lets you get any shot you want on the floor, so look for T-Mac to have a big bounce-back game and for Alston and Scola to chip in with nice 50% plus shooting in support.
Wow. Thanks Miami. Not exactly what I had in mind. I’m officially off the Heat for the rest of the season.
I don’t care how bad the Heat are, 19 points is 19 points. Looks like the line is extra inflated due to Miami’s injuries - Marion, Wade, Banks, Wright are all out and Haslem is questionable. But Bosh and Bargnani are questionable for the Raptors, so they’re not at full strength either. Toronto is a completely different team without Bosh. But this game is all about the line. This is similar to the spreads the Patriots were getting late in the season against Philly, Miami and Baltimore. Except the Raptors are not the Patriots. It’s entirely possible they’ll win this game by 30, but you’re not going to see -19 too many times during the season. Especially on a team as flawed as Toronto.
The MLB regular season is only weeks away and I don’t know about you, but I can’t wait for Tuesday afternoon Pirates vs. Brewers games with Tom Gorzelanny -125 vs. Chris Capuano (I’d be all over the Bucs in that one by the way). But until opening day comes, we’re stuck with late season NBA action. With that, here are a couple picks for St. Patrick’s Day.
New Orleans -4 vs.
Chicago o/u 203.5
Notes: line is at -4.5 at Bodog, Pinnacle and Sportsinteraction
Pick: Hornets -4. One of these days I’m going to get off taking teams on the back end of back-to-backs, but today is not that day. New Orleans was embarrassed by Detroit on Sunday and I think they’re going to take it out on Chicago as they return home. David West is still gimpy and didn’t play against the Pistons, but I believe there is a chance he’ll play tonight. If he doesn’t play, Melvin Eli and Julian Wright aren’t total stiffs and should be able to help some on the boards. Duhon is out for the Bulls per his suspension for running his mouth. I actually think his absence is pretty significant as there is no way Thabo Sefolosha will be able to stay in front of Paul. The Hornets have Houston and Boston coming up on this brief, three-game homestand and that makes this game a must-win. No team in the West playoff hunt can afford a three-game losing streak, especially at home, and New Orleans will want to put this one in their pocket before taking on the Rockets.
Minnesota -6.5 vs 
LA Clippers o/u 197
Notes: -6 available at Oddsmaker. -7 available at betED, BetJamaica, 5Dimes
Pick: Clippers +6.5. Two horrible teams with nothing to play for. Nothing like late March NBA action. This is pretty much a toss-up. If the Wolves’ youngsters have a good game, they could easily win this one by 10-15. But I see the Clippers keeping it close and losing by a basket or maybe 4 points. Chris Kaman is listed as Questionable, but I’m guessing he’ll be kept out of this one. Bad backs are never a good sign, especially for big men and I’m guessing they’ll be cautious with their only decent frontcourt option. If he does play, the Clippers could win this one outright. But that’s a longshot. Telfair is out for the Wolves, which is somewhat significant as he was playing better over the past few weeks before the injury. But really, is a Foye/Jaric backcourt much worse than Telfair/Jaric? It’s all about Gomes and Jaric. If they are on, and go for 18-23 each, the Clippers are in trouble. If they are tired from playing Super Smash Brothers Brawl on the Wii for $10K a game all night last night (full disclosure: in my mind, this is what all NBA players do. Guaranteed contracts = Wii and strippers. Look it up), then L.A. should be able to keep it close.
Nothing on the NBA schedule is jumping out at me today, so let’s go nuts and try a couple college plays.
Purdue -4.5 vs. Illinois
Notes: -5 at Bodog, WSEX, SPORTSBETTING and Sportsinteraction
Pick: Purdue -4.5. Not much to say here. Purdue is the better team and is looking to strengthen their positioning in the tourney. Illinois is a very young team and can go through major droughts on offense. They played a close, tense game last night against Penn State, while Purdue hasn’t played since the 9th. I see Purdue taking control towards the end of the first half and keeping a 10-14 point cushion throughout the second half. Illinois has lost the last 4 ATS in this matchup.
UCLA -8.5 vs USC
Notes: -8 available at a number of books including: Sportsbook, Belmont, Superbook, 5Dimes, Sportingbet
Pick: USC +8.5. This pick is based more on UCLA’s recent play than anything USC has done. UCLA was very, very fortunate to get those wins against Stanford and Cal a few weeks back. A horrible foul call against Stanford on a last second block, and an equally horrible non-call on a last second hack by the Bruins against Cal, followed by an illegal shot that wasn’t called kept the Bruins alive for a top seed in the tournament. That remains their motivation for winning the PAC1o tournament, but I think their recent habit for sluggish starts will continue tonight. USC made it deep into the NCAA Tournament last year and they’ve played in the championship game of the conference tourney three straight years. They’re riding a 3-game winning streak, including quality wins against Arizona St. and Stanford. I think UCLA’s defense and interior scoring will be too much for the Trojans to handle, but I look for USC to keep it close all game and cover the points.
Short slate of games today, but looks like there’s one solid opportunity to get back on track.
Here are three games on the board:
Washington -3 vs. 
Cleveland o/u 193.5
Notes: line is -3.5 at BetED, BetJamaica, WSEX, 5Dimes and Pinnacle
Sacramento -3.5 vs. 
Portland o/u 204.5
Phoenix -7.5 vs. Golden State o/u 236
Notes: line is -7 at BetJamaica, WSEX, SportingBet
Pick: Golden State +7.5. The Warriors have won three straight in this series and now play the running game better than the Suns due to their young legs and the Shaq trade. Golden State was hoping to get some rest for Davis, Jackson and Ellis last night in the win against Toronto, but all three ended up playing around 40 minutes. This could make a difference in the fourth quarter against Phoenix, but I think the Warriors’ big three have enough left in the tank to run with Suns. Also, Biedrins only played 26 minutes, so he should be nice and fresh and ready to bang (read: get tossed around) with Shaq. The Warriors have a great shot at winning this one outright, but short of that, I think they definitely cover the 7.5.
I’ve always been tempted to take the under in this series, and tonight is no exception. 236 is awfully tempting. That means both teams can go for 115 and it still goes under. Having said that, the teams have covered that number in three straight and there really is no reason why they both won’t hit 120 tonight. Still, if you don’t feel like taking a side in this one and still want action, there are worse wagers than going with the under on 236, regardless of who’s playing.
What better way to cleanse the system of a bad couple days of the NBA (have I mentioned that I hate capping NBA games? Oh oops…did I say that out loud? I meant I’m a beast on the NBA. I can’t get enough Minny at Milwaukee -8.5 on a Friday, when you know half the rosters on both teams were out scamming on college girls the night before and it’s just a matter of who can play hungover and who can’t - my guess is Charlie Villanueva plays like a HOFer after railing coke off a stripper while guzzling gin hours before tip-off). Anyway, I clearly have some more cleansing to do. So, with that, let’s get as far from hoops as possible.
Inter Milan -1/2 goal vs. Liverpool (Champions League)
Pick: Inter. Liverpool has a two goal advantage on the aggregate, so they be more than happy to lose this game 1-0 or 2-1. Inter knows they’re probably done in the UCL, but they won’t want to go out with a home loss. I see Liverpool gunning for an early goal to put it completely out of reach and then falling back on defense for the rest of the game. Inter will get their goal in the second half as they go all out on offense. The only problem with this game is that you’re going to have to sweat it out until the final minutes. Liverpool will be clearing the ball and milking the clock at every opportunity in the second half, taking precious time away from Inter’s attack. Also - with the Italian side completely abandoning their D in an desperate attempt at getting the second goal, Liverpool will have plenty of their own chances to score, should they feel the urge. But I don’t think they will. They’ll be content to play it safe and move on to the next round. It’s been a tough year for Liverpool in the EPL and they’re not going to want to do anything stupid in this game to blow their chances at a Champions League title.
New Orleans +7 at Houston o/u 191.5
Pick: New Orleans +7
Line Options: If you’re on Houston, looks like you can still get -6.5 at the following books: betED, BetJamaica, WSEX, 5Dimes, Pinnacle
Summary: In addition to the 17 straight wins S.U., Houston is also riding a nice 9 game ATS winning streak. One of those streaks ends tonight, and I wouldn’t be shocked if both went down at the hands of the Hornets. David West is a gametime decision due to a sprained ankle that has kept him out of the past two games, but if he goes, New Orleans’ frontline will be able to expose the Yao injury better than any of Houston’s previous opponents. Paul and Chandler will be able to run lob plays on Mutombo and West is much too physical for Scola. Paul did play heavy minutes last night, but he has young legs so I don’t think it’ll be an issue. If West goes and is able to play effectively, look for New Orleans to win S.U. If he’s not able to play, I still the Hornets to cover the number.
Trends: Strange trends in this series. The road team is 10-2 ATS over the past 12 and the dog is 17-4 ATS over the past 21.
So much for playing it safe and taking the home side. Why didn’t anybody tell me Miami is the worst team in the league. Seriously, a little heads-up would’ve been nice. But time to shake it off and look at tonight’s limited slate of games.
Cleveland +4 at Chicago o/u 197
Notes: If you want Cleveland and the points, BetJamaica, WSEX, 5Dimes and Pinnacle have it at +4.5. If you’re on Chicago, Oddsmaker looks to be the only book at -3.5.
Pick: Cleveland +4. I can see Chicago winning this game as Hughes and Gooden will be motivated and the home team has had the edge in this series (11-4 ATS over the last 15). However, I don’t see them besting the Cavs by three buckets. Even with the injuries, Cleveland has found a way to beat the teams they’re supposed to beat lately (six-in-a-row against sub .500 teams). Also, the Cavs have won four straight ATS on the back end of back-to-backs. Granted Lebron played 44 minutes last night to get his 50, but the kid is 23. Don’t be surprised if Ben Wallace abuses Gooden and Noah and finishes with 17 rebound, 5 blocks type of night.
Indiana +13 at 
San Antonio o/u 197.5
Pick: No play here. I’ve seen this one way too many times. You take San Antonio and sure enough, they’ll be up 14 and give up a layup at the buzzer. You take Indiana and they’ll miss that layup and lose by 14. This has stay away written all over it. Indiana is just good enough not to let the Spurs completely run away with and the score will be within 10-17 points all game. If you’re desperate for action on this one, I’d go with a small play on the under. San Antonio is in playoff mode, especially at home - under is 7-2 in their last 9 home games.
Houston +1 at 
Dallas 0/u: 182
Pick: Houston. This is a tricky one. I hate long streaks and something tells me Houston’s ends at 16. But no Dirk changes everything. If I was getting 2-3 points, I’d be all over the Mavericks. But right now the Rockets are a better team than the Mavs even with Dirk. Luis Scola and Carl Landry have played great in Yao’s absence, but I just don’t see the same thing coming from Brandon Bass, Devean George or Malik Allen.
Because we’re not going to get too far taking road favorites all the time, it’s time to look at a few home plays for today (3/5).
Toronto at 
Miami
Pick: Miami -2.5
Summary: I know it’s Miami, but they have played a bit better as of late - 2-2 over their last 4 - and Wade, Marion and Haslem are still a pretty solid core. The key here is obviously the Bosh injury. Toronto has dropped three straight, including double-digit losses at home to Indiana and at Charlotte. Calderon is a tough matchup for Jason Williams, but Marion and Haslem will be there inside to protect the rim as I don’t see Moon or Nesterovic spacing out for jump shots.
Trends: The trends favor Toronto here. The Raptors are 8-2 in their last 10 following a S.U. loss. Same trend in their last 10 following an ATS loss. Of course, the two losses for both trends just took place, which I would think is more relevant in regards to tonight’s game than the eight wins. Also - the Raptors love them some humpday hoops. They are 26-8 ATS in their last 34 Wednesday games. I’m not going to bother to write out the Miami trends because, frankly, 11-47 is the only trend you really need to know.
Head-to-Head: The teams have split their last four meetings, with Toronto winning the only game this year 114-82, in Toronto, on 2/4.
Props: superbook.com has Marion Total Points at o/u 16.5. I like the over at -105. No Bosh and the pace of the game should fit his style of play. Plus, they actually run plays for Marion in Miami.
Magic at Wizards
Pick: Washington +2
Summary: Both teams are hot - Washington has won 4 out of their last 5 and Orlando 5 out of their last 6. However, Toronto is on the road and is on the back end of a back-to-back after beating the Raptors last night. The Magic have been one of the best road teams in the league all year at 21-12, but I think they’ll have a tough time tonight against a hot and emotional Wizards team. After losing 10 out of 11, Washington has finally come to terms with the fact that they’re going to have win with what they have and can’t worry about Butler and Arenas getting back. A win tonight gets them back to .500 and I think they’ll pull this one out.
Trends: Magic are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 on the back end of a back-to-back. But they are also 1-5 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a winning road record. This says something to me. They are young team that plays great at home, but struggles on the road against decent-to-good teams. I think they solve this trend next year, but they’re not there yet. The Wizards are 7-0 ATS over their last seven games on two days rest.
Head-to-Head: The Magic have won the last two, both in Orlando. The Wizards won the previous two matchups.