Betting Odds Blog

I slept on it, and I’m still liking the Warriors. Must be a good sign. As promised, here are some matchup details and trends:

Warriors at Hawks

Line: Golden State -1 NOTE: As of this writing, Bodog is the only offshore at -1.5. Update: I believe sports.com is also at -1.5.

Injuries: Warriors: Biedrins (out), Webber (out). Hawks: Law (out), Claxton (been out all year)

Streaks: Warriors: 3 straight W’s, 7-3 in their last 10. Hawks: Coming off a 10-point loss at Boston, 3-7 in their last 10 (only win on their recent 6-game road trip was at Golden State)

Head-to-Head: Hawks have won four-in-a-row after the Warriors had won the previous six meetings.

Trends: Warriors have lost their last four Tuesday games. I say they’re due, but that’s just me. All the other significant Golden State trends are ATS-related, which I don’t think applies here. They’ve been cold against the spread lately - 2-8 in their last 10 - but they still won most of those games, and that’s all they have to do here, provided the line stays around -1. Also - most of those ATS losses came at home where the Warriors don’t wake up until the second half. They play with much more urgency and focus on the road. Finally, Golden State dominates the Southeast Division to the tune of 21-6 over their last 27 games.

No real Atlanta trends. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four when their opponent allows 100 or more in their previous game, but the Warriors light it up, so giving up 100 doesn’t bare the same significance as it would with another team.

The Squares: According to scoresandodds.com, 91% of the betting public is on Golden State minus the points. I put zero value on the public percentages, but if you’re all about safety in numbers then this should be a comforting stat.

Summary: Well, the numbers aren’t telling me much, and they’re definitely not pushing me off of my original feeling. So I’m sticking with the Warriors minus a point. I’d stay on that all the way up to -2. If it goes to -2.5, which I doubt it will, I’d have to reconsider. This game is all about the Warriors wanting to get the road trip off to a good start and ending their losing streak against the Hawks. Brandan Wright has played well during Biedrins’ absence and he matches up well against Williams and Childress. More importantly, Atlanta’s backcourt can’t stay with Davis and Ellis. Joe Johnson will get his points, but neither he nor Bibby can stop the Warriors’ guards from getting to the lane, and Golden State is all about the drive and kick.

Note: Look for a solid game from Harrington. Maybe even 20 and 10.

P.S. I still think the Lakers/Kings game will go under. Shhhhh.