Betting Odds Blog

Because we’re not going to get too far taking road favorites all the time, it’s time to look at a few home plays for today (3/5).

Toronto at Miami

Pick: Miami -2.5

Summary: I know it’s Miami, but they have played a bit better as of late - 2-2 over their last 4 - and Wade, Marion and Haslem are still a pretty solid core. The key here is obviously the Bosh injury. Toronto has dropped three straight, including double-digit losses at home to Indiana and at Charlotte. Calderon is a tough matchup for Jason Williams, but Marion and Haslem will be there inside to protect the rim as I don’t see Moon or Nesterovic spacing out for jump shots.

Trends: The trends favor Toronto here. The Raptors are 8-2 in their last 10 following a S.U. loss. Same trend in their last 10 following an ATS loss. Of course, the two losses for both trends just took place, which I would think is more relevant in regards to tonight’s game than the eight wins. Also - the Raptors love them some humpday hoops. They are 26-8 ATS in their last 34 Wednesday games. I’m not going to bother to write out the Miami trends because, frankly, 11-47 is the only trend you really need to know.

Head-to-Head: The teams have split their last four meetings, with Toronto winning the only game this year 114-82, in Toronto, on 2/4.

Props: superbook.com has Marion Total Points at o/u 16.5. I like the over at -105. No Bosh and the pace of the game should fit his style of play. Plus, they actually run plays for Marion in Miami.

Magic at Wizards

Pick: Washington +2

Summary: Both teams are hot - Washington has won 4 out of their last 5 and Orlando 5 out of their last 6. However, Toronto is on the road and is on the back end of a back-to-back after beating the Raptors last night. The Magic have been one of the best road teams in the league all year at 21-12, but I think they’ll have a tough time tonight against a hot and emotional Wizards team. After losing 10 out of 11, Washington has finally come to terms with the fact that they’re going to have win with what they have and can’t worry about Butler and Arenas getting back. A win tonight gets them back to .500 and I think they’ll pull this one out.

Trends: Magic are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 on the back end of a back-to-back. But they are also 1-5 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a winning road record. This says something to me. They are young team that plays great at home, but struggles on the road against decent-to-good teams. I think they solve this trend next year, but they’re not there yet. The Wizards are 7-0 ATS over their last seven games on two days rest.

Head-to-Head: The Magic have won the last two, both in Orlando. The Wizards won the previous two matchups.