Well, I was wrong about Harrington having a big night, but I’ll take it. Now let’s take a look at the late games:
L.A. Lakers -6 at Sacramento o/u 222
Notes: try betED and WSEX if you’re on the Lakers and want a half point to bring it down to -5.5
Phoenix -2.5 at Portland o/u 208
Notes: -2 still available at 5Dimes, Pinnacle and BetJamaica
Pick: Phoenix -2.5. Suns are 5-5 over their last 10 and have lost 2 in a row. That just won’t get it done in the West this year and they know it. The Suns have won the last 6 head-to-head, and I see it going to 7 tonight. I think this is a great spot for Shaq to have his best game as a member of the Suns. Przybilla and Aldridge will get in early foul trouble, knocking Portland out of their normal rotation. It will also keep Aldridge and his money elbow jumper off the floor. The Suns matchup well against this team and they really have no excuse for coming out flat. I see the Suns winning by a margin of 10-14 points.
Hmmm. Apparently I’m getting no respect. GS -1 must have been the overnight line, as it looks like most of the offshores have it at ATL -2 now. I’ll go ahead and take full credit for the adjustment. Clearly my in-depth analysis and insights were enough to scare everyone off of taking the Warriors. GS backers - you’re welcome.
Personally, I love when this happens. I was loving the Warriors anyway, and now I can get them straight-up for +115. Nothing wrong with that.
Did a quick check and don’t see any recent news or updates that would’ve affected the spread. I think Webber has been downgraded to questionable, but from what I understand he’s scheduled for an MRI, so I have him as out. I’m guessing Atlanta’s impressive home wins and their recent dominance of Golden State is what moved the line.
I slept on it, and I’m still liking the Warriors. Must be a good sign. As promised, here are some matchup details and trends:
Warriors at 
Hawks
Line: Golden State -1 NOTE: As of this writing, Bodog is the only offshore at -1.5. Update: I believe sports.com is also at -1.5.
Injuries: Warriors: Biedrins (out), Webber (out). Hawks: Law (out), Claxton (been out all year)
Streaks: Warriors: 3 straight W’s, 7-3 in their last 10. Hawks: Coming off a 10-point loss at Boston, 3-7 in their last 10 (only win on their recent 6-game road trip was at Golden State)
Head-to-Head: Hawks have won four-in-a-row after the Warriors had won the previous six meetings.
Trends: Warriors have lost their last four Tuesday games. I say they’re due, but that’s just me. All the other significant Golden State trends are ATS-related, which I don’t think applies here. They’ve been cold against the spread lately - 2-8 in their last 10 - but they still won most of those games, and that’s all they have to do here, provided the line stays around -1. Also - most of those ATS losses came at home where the Warriors don’t wake up until the second half. They play with much more urgency and focus on the road. Finally, Golden State dominates the Southeast Division to the tune of 21-6 over their last 27 games.
No real Atlanta trends. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four when their opponent allows 100 or more in their previous game, but the Warriors light it up, so giving up 100 doesn’t bare the same significance as it would with another team.
The Squares: According to scoresandodds.com, 91% of the betting public is on Golden State minus the points. I put zero value on the public percentages, but if you’re all about safety in numbers then this should be a comforting stat.
Summary: Well, the numbers aren’t telling me much, and they’re definitely not pushing me off of my original feeling. So I’m sticking with the Warriors minus a point. I’d stay on that all the way up to -2. If it goes to -2.5, which I doubt it will, I’d have to reconsider. This game is all about the Warriors wanting to get the road trip off to a good start and ending their losing streak against the Hawks. Brandan Wright has played well during Biedrins’ absence and he matches up well against Williams and Childress. More importantly, Atlanta’s backcourt can’t stay with Davis and Ellis. Joe Johnson will get his points, but neither he nor Bibby can stop the Warriors’ guards from getting to the lane, and Golden State is all about the drive and kick.
Note: Look for a solid game from Harrington. Maybe even 20 and 10.
P.S. I still think the Lakers/Kings game will go under. Shhhhh.
Nothing like starting out a new sports wagering site by posting a pick based purely on a feeling. Having said that, I’m loving the Warriors -1 at Atlanta. I know Atlanta has beaten some solid, solid teams at home this season (see: Dallas, Phoenix, Utah, Cleveland, Lakers). I know the Warriors are going to be sans Biedrins and Webber’s walking corpse. I know the Hawks’ young, athletic bigs are a tough matchup for Golden State, especially with the aforementioned injuries. But I just see Golden State wanting to get their road trip off to a good start. They’re going to come out with the first quarter energy that’s been there much more often on the road than at home this season, and I think they’ll exploit the Ellis/Davis vs. Bibby
Warriors at Hawks
matchup early and often. And don’t forget - Atlanta is riding a four-game win streak over the Warriors. Atlanta over Golden State five straight times just doesn’t sound right, does it?
The Warriors have had their collective game faces on for a good week now, and I don’t see a flat performance coming until probably the Miami game. Also - if Golden State wins this game, they know they really only have to win one more game on the trip to still be in decent shape. Meaning they can afford to look ahead to Orlando during the Miami game - especially if they win in Charlotte. But if they lose to Atlanta, the Charlotte and Miami games become must wins, and that’s a big, big swing.
Once again, that’s all just the ‘ol gut talking. I’ll be back in the morning with matchup info and other goodies to make this pick a bit more legit. Note: Looks like the line is trending upwards. Stay tuned.
In the interest of full disclosure: I live in the Bay Area and follow the Warriors pretty closely. I’m not exactly a diehard fan, so my bias doesn’t run as deep as it could, but I’m sure it’s coloring my thoughts at least a little bit.
From the Quick Glance Department: The Lakers vs. Sacramento game is staying under 220.5. You heard it here first.
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